Nonparametric detection of changepoints for sequentially observed data

AbstractAssume that independent data Xn1,…,Xnk(n) are observed sequentially in time, where k(n) < ∞ is a finite horizon. Suppose also that there existsθ ∈ (0, 1] such that Xn1,…, Xn[k(n)θ] have distribution ν1,n and Xn[k(n)θ]+1,…,Xnk(n) have distribution ν2,n. The distributions and the changepoint θ are unknown. Our aim is to react as soon as possible after the change has taken place. We propose a nonparametric stopping rule which attains a given probability of “false alarm” on the one hand and, on the other hand, is less than or equal to k(n)θ + (Ok(n)) with probability one

Random walks - a sequential approach

In this paper sequential monitoring schemes to detect nonparametric drifts are studied for the random walk case. The procedure is based on a kernel smoother. As a by-product we obtain the asymptotics of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator and its as- sociated sequential partial sum process under non-standard sampling. The asymptotic behavior differs substantially from the stationary situation, if there is a unit root (random walk component). To obtain meaningful asymptotic results we consider local nonpara- metric alternatives for the drift component. It turns out that the rate of convergence at which the drift vanishes determines whether the asymptotic properties of the monitoring procedure are determined by a deterministic or random function. Further, we provide a theoretical result about the optimal kernel for a given alternative

Multiple Scattering Mechanisms in Simultaneous Projectile-Electron and Target-Electron Ejection in H⁻ + He Collisions

We studied simultaneous electron ejection from both collision partners in 200-keV H-+He collisions in a kinematically complete experiment by measuring the fully momentum-analyzed recoil ions and both active electrons in coincidence. The data were analyzed in terms of Dalitz spectra, in which the momentum exchange between three particles is plotted simultaneously in a single spectrum. We found that the energy transfer occurs predominantly between the active electrons, but most of the momentum is exchanged in elastic scattering between the cores of the collision partners

Triple-Differential Cross Sections for Target Ionization with Simultaneous Projectile Detachment in 200-keV H⁻ + He Collisions

We have performed a kinematically complete experiment for target ionization with simultaneous projectile detachment (TIPD) in 200-keV H− + He collisions. From the data we extracted triple-differential cross sections (TDCSs) for each electron separately. These TDCSs closely resemble corresponding data for single ionization by charged-particle impact. Surprisingly, the contributions from higher-order processes to TIPD, proceeding through two independent interactions of each electron with the core of the respective other collision partner, are found to be somewhat larger than the first-order process proceeding through the electron-electron interaction

oA novel nonparametric approach for estimating cut-offs in continuous risk indicators with application to diabetes epidemiology

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Epidemiological and clinical studies, often including anthropometric measures, have established obesity as a major risk factor for the development of type 2 diabetes. Appropriate cut-off values for anthropometric parameters are necessary for prediction or decision purposes. The cut-off corresponding to the Youden-Index is often applied in epidemiology and biomedical literature for dichotomizing a continuous risk indicator.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using data from a representative large multistage longitudinal epidemiological study in a primary care setting in Germany, this paper explores a novel approach for estimating optimal cut-offs of anthropomorphic parameters for predicting type 2 diabetes based on a discontinuity of a regression function in a nonparametric regression framework.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The resulting cut-off corresponded to values obtained by the Youden Index (maximum of the sum of sensitivity and specificity, minus one), often considered the optimal cut-off in epidemiological and biomedical research. The nonparametric regression based estimator was compared to results obtained by the established methods of the Receiver Operating Characteristic plot in various simulation scenarios and based on bias and root mean square error, yielded excellent finite sample properties.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>It is thus recommended that this nonparametric regression approach be considered as valuable alternative when a continuous indicator has to be dichotomized at the Youden Index for prediction or decision purposes.</p

Introduction to This Special Issue on Open Design at the Intersection of Making and Manufacturing

What is ‘open design’ and who gets to say what it is? In the emerging body of literature on open design, there is a clear alignment to the values and practices of free culture and open source software and hardware. Yet this same literature includes multiple, sometimes even contradictory strands of technology practice and research. These different perspectives can be traced back to free culture advocates from the 1970s to the 1990s who formulated the ideal of the internet as inherently empowering, democratizing, and countercultural. However, more recent approaches include feminist and critical interventions into hacking and making as well as corporate strategies of “open innovation” that bring end-users and consumers into the design process. What remains today seems to fall into two schools of thought. On one hand, we have the celebratory endorsements of ‘openness’ as applied to technology and design. On the other hand, we have a continuous and expanding critique of these very ideals and questions, where that critique identifies persisting forms of racial, gender, age, and class-based exclusions, and questions about the relationship between open design, labor and power remain largely unanswered

MPP+-induced toxicity in the presence of dopamine is mediated by COX-2 through oxidative stress

Accumulating evidence suggests that endogenous dopamine may act as a neurotoxin and thereby participate in the pathophysiology of Parkinson’s disease (PD). Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) has been implicated in the pathogenesis of PD due to its ability to generate reactive oxygen species (ROS). Inhibition of COX-2 leads to neuroprotection by preventing the formation of dopamine-quinone. In this study, we examined whether dopamine mediates 1-methyl-4-phenylpyridinium (MPP+)-induced toxicity in primary ventral mesencephalic (VM) neurons, an in vitro model of PD, and if so, whether the protective effects of COX-2 inhibitors on dopamine mediated MPP+-induced VM neurotoxicity and VM dopaminergic cell apoptosis result from the reduction of ROS. Reserpine, a dopamine-depleting agent, significantly reduced VM neurotoxicity induced by MPP+, whereas dopamine had an additive effect on MPP+-induced VM neurotoxicity and VM dopaminergic cell apoptosis. However, inhibition of COX-2 by a selective COX-2 inhibitor (DFU) or ibuprofen significantly attenuated MPP+-induced VM cell toxicity and VM dopaminergic cell apoptosis, which was accompanied by a decrease in ROS production in VM dopaminergic neurons. These results suggest that dopamine itself mediates MPP+-induced VM neurotoxicity and VM dopaminergic cell apoptosis in the presence of COX-2

Potential of Airborne LiDAR Derived Vegetation Structure for the Prediction of Animal Species Richness at Mount Kilimanjaro

The monitoring of species and functional diversity is of increasing relevance for the development of strategies for the conservation and management of biodiversity. Therefore, reliable estimates of the performance of monitoring techniques across taxa become important. Using a unique dataset, this study investigates the potential of airborne LiDAR-derived variables characterizing vegetation structure as predictors for animal species richness at the southern slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro. To disentangle the structural LiDAR information from co-factors related to elevational vegetation zones, LiDAR-based models were compared to the predictive power of elevation models. 17 taxa and 4 feeding guilds were modeled and the standardized study design allowed for a comparison across the assemblages. Results show that most taxa (14) and feeding guilds (3) can be predicted best by elevation with normalized RMSE values but only for three of those taxa and two of those feeding guilds the difference to other models is significant. Generally, modeling performances between different models vary only slightly for each assemblage. For the remaining, structural information at most showed little additional contribution to the performance. In summary, LiDAR observations can be used for animal species prediction. However, the effort and cost of aerial surveys are not always in proportion with the prediction quality, especially when the species distribution follows zonal patterns, and elevation information yields similar results

Lipopolysaccharide and Tumor Necrosis Factor Regulate Parkin Expression via Nuclear Factor-Kappa B

Inflammation and oxidative stress have been implicated in the pathophysiology of Parkinson's disease (PD) and inhibition of microglial activation attenuates degeneration of dopaminergic (DA) neurons in animal models of PD. Loss-of-function mutations in the parkin gene, which encodes an E3 ubiquitin ligase, cause autosomal recessive parkinsonism. While most studies on Parkin have focused on its function in neurons, here we demonstrate that Parkin mRNA and protein is detectable in brain-resident microglia and peripheral macrophages. Using pharmacologic and genetic approaches, we found that Parkin levels are regulated by inflammatory signaling. Specifically, exposure to LPS or Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF) induced a transient and dose-dependent decrease in Parkin mRNA and protein in microglia, macrophages and neuronal cells blockable by inhibitors of Nuclear Factor-Kappa B (NF-κB) signaling and not observed in MyD88-null cells. Moreover, using luciferase reporter assays, we identified an NF-κB response element in the mouse parkin promoter responsible for mediating the transcriptional repression, which was abrogated when the consensus sequence was mutated. Functionally, activated macrophages from Parkin-null mice displayed increased levels of TNF, IL-1β, and iNOS mRNA compared to wild type macrophages but no difference in levels of Nrf2, HO-1, or NQO1. One implication of our findings is that chronic inflammatory conditions may reduce Parkin levels and phenocopy parkin loss-of-function mutations, thereby increasing the vulnerability for degeneration of the nigrostriatal pathway and development of PD

P2 receptors are involved in the mediation of motivation-related behavior

The importance of purinergic signaling in the intact mesolimbic–mesocortical circuit of the brain of freely moving rats is reviewed. In the rat, an endogenous ADP/ATPergic tone reinforces the release of dopamine from the axon terminals in the nucleus accumbens as well as from the somatodendritic region of these neurons in the ventral tegmental area, as well as the release of glutamate, probably via P2Y1 receptor stimulation. Similar mechanisms may regulate the release of glutamate in both areas of the brain. Dopamine and glutamate determine in concert the activity of the accumbal GABAergic, medium-size spiny neurons thought to act as an interface between the limbic cortex and the extrapyramidal motor system. These neurons project to the pallidal and mesencephalic areas, thereby mediating the behavioral reaction of the animal in response to a motivation-related stimulus. There is evidence that extracellular ADP/ATP promotes goal-directed behavior, e.g., intention and feeding, via dopamine, probably via P2Y1 receptor stimulation. Accumbal P2 receptor-mediated glutamatergic mechanisms seem to counteract the dopaminergic effects on behavior. Furthermore, adaptive changes of motivation-related behavior, e.g., by chronic succession of starvation and feeding or by repeated amphetamine administration, are accompanied by changes in the expression of the P2Y1 receptor, thought to modulate the sensitivity of the animal to respond to certain stimuli